Jason Unger

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Toshiba Officially Drops HD DVD, to End Shipments in March

Right now, at the top of Techmeme ("Tech Web, Page A1") is a story on Microsoft planning an Xbox 360 with Blu-ray drive.

Don't believe it. It's not true.

The story is "written" by David Richards, the Australian Web publisher known for plagiarizing and fabricating technology stories.

Richards has previously made up a story about an Xbox 360 with a built-in HD DVD drive coming from Microsoft, which never happened.

CrunchGear, Gizmodo and Engadget have all picked up on the story, at least noting it as a rumor.

Beyond the credibility problems of Richards, there are a lot of reasons why this will never happen.

1) Microsoft has been looking to digital downloads for a long time now. It makes no sense for them to re-do their most popular hardware to catch the wind of a short-lived trend.

2) Microsoft hates Java, which Blu-ray uses for its interactivity feature set, BD-J. Chris Lanier has a nice wrap-up of why this is important.

3) No one would pay for a BD 360. Considering the premium 360 costs $350 — only $50 less than the PlayStation 3 — a Blu-ray enabled Xbox would have to MSRP for close to $500. We know how well the PS3 did at that price point.

4) Microsoft hates Sony! The common speculation why Microsoft supported HD DVD was to prolong the format war to a point where digital downloads would be viable. We're not there yet, but we're close.

A day after Fred Wilson takes aim at bloggers not fulfilling their journalistic duties, it's important to remind everyone to be skeptical of rumors and research the claims and the people making them.

In this case, there's nothing from David Richards worth believing.

Gaming Pushing Blu-ray/HD DVD Market, Research Finds

Gaming hardware is driving the adoption of both Blu-ray and HD DVD, according to new research from DisplaySearch.

According to “Quarterly Global Next Generation DVD and Game Platform Hardware Shipment and Forecast Report,” high-definition DVD gaming hardware—Sony’s PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360’s external HD DVD drive—had revenue growth of more than three times that of standalone players from the second to third quarters of 2007.

This isn't shocking. Why would someone on the fence about the format war invest their hard-earned money in a player that could eventually be useless?

(The exception here is when the price of the units competes with current DVD players, as HD DVD's $98 Wal-Mart special did back in November.)

The only reason I'm considering a PS3 is that it would provide two entertainment options — Blu-ray and gaming. While it's looking more and more likely that Blu-ray will win the format war, at some point digital downloads will be the norm.

One of the big problems with Blu-ray research and the PS3 is that everyone uses it at their convenience. The HD DVD side doesn't include it when discussing "standalone" players — I would consider it one — and the Blu-ray side uses it when totaling their market share.

For all intents and purposes, the PS3 should be included in all Blu-ray statistics. Obviously, it's questionable just how many PS3 owners use it as a Blu-ray player — some studies say a lot, some not a lot.

But it has a Blu-ray drive in it, so it's a Blu-ray player. That doesn't mean that Toshiba should be trying to compete against it — it shouldn't — but you can't ignore its presence.

I want Rock Band.

I really want Rock Band.

But I just can't justify buying it.

I have this whole process mapped out in my head, but I can't take the first step — and I probably won't.

Now that it looks like Blu-ray will win the next-gen DVD format war, I figure it's a safe time to buy a PlayStation 3, which features a built-in BD drive.

Read the rest at the Online Savings Blog.

(image from MTV Multiplayer)

There's no question that this CES hasn't gone as planned for Toshiba.

Last Thursday night (the day before the official news broke) Friday, the company found out that Warner Bros. would only be releasing titles on the Blu-ray disc format, the main competitor to Toshiba's HD DVD disc.

As Warner goes, so goes the war.

New Line followed Warner out, as did HBO.

Now reports are coming in that Universal and Paramount are contemplating switching, but can't confirm any rumors.

HD DVD has essentially been declared dead.

I spent some time this afternoon talking to Toshiba reps, and the mood is gloomy. They're obviously trying to spin it positively, putting out the message that their retail partners will continue to sell their HD DVD players.

But beyond that, they aren't saying much. In my sit down with a company exec, nearly all of my questions — which were not that hard hitting — got the talking points treatment.

Q: "When did you find out about Warner's decision?"
A: "Roughly the same time you did."

Considering that I didn't find out until Saturday night, I'm hoping that he misspoke. (A Toshiba PR rep let it slip that they found out Thursday night.)

They acknowledge that Warner's decision is a "setback," but they wouldn't answer my question about any fears of other studios leaving.

Q: "So you're not afraid of other studios leaving?"
A: "I didn't say that."

They're also pushing the idea that the final decision is up to consumers, but won't talk about them choosing Blu-ray.

Q: "What happens if consumers choose Blu-ray this year?"
A: "I won't speculate on 2008."

I feel for the HD DVD camp, but in the end, one format is the best for consumers.

I've asked both sides where they thought it went wrong; at some point, the two sides could have agreed on a unified format. The Blu-ray camp has said it was a capacity issue. The HD DVD/Toshiba side didn't say, but says that capacity was "a big thing in the beginning."

We'll all look at this CES as a turning point in the format war. For HD DVD, it's starting to look like a slippery slope down the hill.

Update: Toshiba has clarified that they found out about the Warner decision when the press release hit on Friday, not Thursday night.